Archive for 'Technical Analysis'

Where is Gold headed?

The last big correction in Gold occurred between March and December 2008 and lasted between 8 and 9 months. At this stage it is still unclear whether the bull market has ended of if it still has legs. My personal belief is that we’ll see a new all-time high in Gold within a year or two. The amount of liquidity, past and future QE form the Fed, current LTRO from the Fed, negative real interest rates persisting in the foreseeable future are only some of ...

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Is this the end of the US equity rally?

Is this the end of the US equity rally?

The SPY (S&P500) clearly broke above the October 2011 last week. But it is now headed into a much bigger overhead resistance. And it is approaching it in big overbought conditions. This kind of multi-year resistance (see blue, gree and pink trend lines in the chart) is not the kind of resistance that you break on a first attempt.

Pink line: the resistance line drawn ...

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Model Readings – January 15

Model Readings – January 15

Good afternoon everybody,

The U.S. equity markets have continued to hold well over the last couple of weeks but are struggling to hold ground at

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The Dollar holds the key

The Dollar holds the key

This is the first post of a new series in which we will periodically analyze charts of important ETFs.

Today we start with the one which is probably the most important at the moment: the US Dollar Chart, proxied by UUP (US Dollar Index Bullish  Fund). Indeed, over the last years, the Dollar has shown a strong inverse correlation with risk assets (although with varying strength – see lower part of the monthly chart below. When the dollar rises, this usually puts ...

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